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The Elusive Nice Little Bow
President George W. Bush sat on the couch in his hotel suite with his wife, Laura, and watched the returns coming in on the flat-screen television along with the rest of America. He was uncharacteristically calm, his tranquility broken only by his slightly jiggling left leg. His expression was one of pleasant indifference, as his left hand mindlessly played with the wedding band on his wife's right fourth finger. His twin daughters, Jenna and Barbara, flitted in and out of the room trying to keep busy doing nothing, but were adding to the sense of gloom that seemed to be enveloping everyone in the room except the President. His younger brother and Vice President, Jeb, a man he had increasingly relied on for counsel in the second half of his term, sat in an armchair silently gazing at the TV, occasionally tossing a shelled peanut into his mouth. A camera crew from one of the networks was filming the Bushes watching television, which at that moment was showing the Bushes watching television.
It is an interesting feature of our democracy that the most powerful man in the world doesn't really have any better access to the numbers on Election Night than you or me sitting at home on our own couches. Oh sure, he has his pollsters and his aides on multiple telephones getting indications from a myriad of locations about how he is doing, but most of these people are leading with their hearts, not their heads. They prefer telling their guy what he would like to hear, or at least the best version they can present without out-and-out lying, rather than being the person who has to render a version of the sad truth.
On this first Tuesday night in November, no one needed to dress up the truth for the President. It was there to see on every channel. The President, weakened by the third-party insurgency of the silver-haired, silver-tongued Georgian Newt Gingrich, was being squarely beaten in the 2004 presidential election by Democratic challenger John Kerry.
Kerry was winning with the lowest percentage of the popular vote in American history—that is a fact. That Dick Cheney and his cabal would hand the election to Kerry by siphoning off a fatal amount of Bush support is also beyond dispute. Newt Gingrich had managed to wrest away 63 electoral votes and win a stunning eight states, all of them Red, all of them in the Bush column in 2000. With even half of these voters, and certainly with the Electoral College numbers from the states these voters lived in, the President could have comfortably fended off the challenge from the Massachusetts senator. His overall poll numbers weren't bad, especially among independents. In fact there was a sizable minority of Democrats who had crossed party lines and voted for the incumbent.
What made the fall within his own base more ironic was that his positive ratings around the world were off the charts. This offered a comparison with men of his father's era and beyond: former Soviet President Mikhail Gorbachev, who was the most admired man in the world at the same time he was booted from office in his own country, or even Winston Churchill, who was dumped by the British electorate in 1945 despite his heroic statesmanship in leading Great Britain to victory in World War II.
So George W. Bush, in his denouement, in the middle of what might be described as downcast chaos, sat calmly, resignedly, almost serenely, chewing on ice cubes from his glass of water and consoling those around the room who were trying to console him.
Blake Gottesman, the President's personal aide, approached red-eyed and said, "Mr. President, there's still time. We haven't had the final results from the West Coast."
"I know, Blakie. There's still a ways to go. It ain't over 'til it's over," smiled the President. But it was over. The President knew it, and so did everyone else in the room. George W. Bush would have to sweep every state on the West Coast to have a mathematical chance to win, and that didn't appear possible.
The question of whether the American Patriot Party has a future as a third party in this country is still an open one. The political junkyard is full of one-shot third-party presidential challenges, and not even Theodore Roosevelt could make his stick. There is reason to believe, however, that the APP may be around for quite a while. The American Patriot Party has resources that other third parties could only dream of. They have a treasure chest full of money, and the almost unlimited ability to raise more. They have, practically speaking, their own television network in the FoxNews channel. They have the prestige of having many of the most respected men of government, journalism and private industry calling the party their own. And, they have a rabid base of loyal voters. This may be, in the end, the most important thing of all.
The party that may be in serious trouble going forward in the United States is the Republican Party. Now that their conservative wing has been largely drawn off by the APP, what remains of the Republican Party is increasingly seen as country-club, blue-blood, high-church businessmen, holding on to a rigid fiscal conservatism with a moderate streak of social liberalism. The Libertarians are now threatening what is even left of this portion of the party.
Throughout American history, political parties have come and gone. The Federalist Party of Washington, Hamilton, and Adams lasted about twenty-five years; the Democratic-Republican Party of Jefferson and Madison, its main nemesis, lasted only a bit longer. The Whigs were around for a little over twenty years before many of their members jumped over to the new Republican Party of Abraham Lincoln. Horace Greeley was a candidate for president in 1872 under the entity known as the Liberal Republican Party. That one didn't make it past its debut. The Populist Party was around for four elections at the turn of the 20th century, and is best known for the candidacy of the great orator, William Jennings Bryan. The Socialist Party did poorly in this country for over seventy years, but it kept right on fielding candidates.
Of course, the Democratic and Republican Parties are the two with whom we are most familiar, but what is not so well known is that over the past century and-a-half, the two parties have swapped ideological places. Despite what their spinmeisters would have us believe, the party of Lincoln did not resemble the party of Reagan. To be fair, the Democratic Party of Jefferson and Madison would not have recognized the New Deal coalitions of Franklin Delano Roosevelt and Lyndon Johnson.
What we are seeing today is the dramatic shift of the dominant right wing of the Republican Party to the American Patriot Party. What we saw over the last two years of the second Bush presidency was an even more dramatic ideological shift in the mind of the 43rd President of the United States–an unprecedented and rapid change of a political, and philosophical state of mind that has no frame of reference in American political history. One can conjure up the story of Ronald Reagan's rather abrupt turn from liberal Democrat to conservative Republican, but this shift took place decades before he became President. I'm afraid we will look in vain for anything close to what happened to George W. Bush from the fall of 2002 until his defeat at the polls in the fall of 2004.
Pundits, authors, psychologists, theologians, bloggers, talk show hosts, and armchair historians will continue to dissect just what in the heck happened to President George W. Bush. Trained to look for conspiracies under every rock, some well-meaning journalists will lead their gullible readers in every direction but the right one. Searching for logical answers to fit known paradigms, the media has already arrived at a general conclusion that is digestible to the majority of short attention span Americans. The story, with some room for minor creative variations, goes something like this:
Sometime in the fall of 2002, with plans for a full-scale war with Iraq completely underway, President Bush began to have some doubts about either the war itself, or, more likely, what was going to happen in Iraq immediately following a military victory. A major battle within the administration raged behind the scenes between two groups of people who saw the Iraq War, and the larger War on Terror, through two completely different lenses. The first group, led by Vice President Dick Cheney, and supported by Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld and an influential contingent of neo-conservatives within the administration, saw the war as a quick, relatively cheap first step towards establishing complete hegemony in the Middle East and control of the extremely valuable Iraqi oil spigot. They also sought to establish a toehold in the Arab world for democracy, remove the U.S. military's forward operating bases from Saudi Arabia and replace them with new ones in Iraq, and develop a natural ally in Israel into the bargain. Using 9/11 as a golden casus belli, a new Pearl Harbor, the Cheney group meant to take advantage of the American public's fear and anger over the terrorist attacks of September, 2001 to put their long term plan for American global dominance into immediate play.
The second administration group, almost diametrically opposed to the Cheney group, was led by Secretary of State Colin Powell and National Security Advisor Condoleezza Rice, and included the clandestine support of former President George H.W. Bush, the then Governor of Florida, Jeb Bush, former Secretary of State James A. Baker III, and former NSA chief General Brent Scowcroft. This group favored a more pragmatic, measured approach to the War on Terror–building a real coalition, using the power of the United Nations, and dealing with one nation completely before taking on a second.
Conventional wisdom has it that President Bush fell in with the second crowd, after spending the four years prior, including his last two as Governor of Texas, enthralled with the first one. This theory, widely believed even as I write this almost three years later, has hopefully been demonstrably debunked by the publication of this book. While it is true that George W. Bush did begin to rely on this second group for advice, the evidence is now clear that it was only after he had already made up his mind to stop the Iraq War. He looked to this group for confirmation of his own changing belief.
Much has also been made about the role that the President's long-time friend, Mo Levison played in George W. Bush's volté-face. Levison has been called everything from a Democratic plant to a modern-day Rasputin, and some journalists have even gone so far as to whisper of homoerotic overtones in the Jewish lawyer's relationship with the former President. While there has never been any evidence to corroborate this ridiculous charge, Levison's role in George W. Bush's transformation should not be understated; particularly as it concerns the President's determination to close the prison at Guantanamo Bay, Levison's influence was substantial. Once again, however, he was brought in by the President as a sounding board only after he was well on his way towards making the definitive decision of his presidency.
The Camp David Roundtable, which many in the media still see as the event that cost the President his base, falls into the same category. That meeting had a significant impact on the President's future thinking, but as it pertained to the Iraq War, it merely was further confirmation of what he had already formulated in his own mind over the months prior.
That things quickly dominoed from there is back to the realm of known fact. The White House Showdown in late February 2003, in which President Bush announced to his National Security Council his intention to halt the Iraq War, and which resulted in almost half of his National Security team walking out of the meeting in disgust, set off the chain of events that ultimately led to George W. Bush's defeat in November of 2004. At almost the same time, when word of the decision was made public, the President became an overnight hero to billions of people around the globe. The 2003 Nobel Peace Prize was awarded to the President for this courageous choice.
The moment former Vice President Dick Cheney made the decision to launch the American Patriot Party, George W. Bush's electoral fate was sealed. The mainstream media needed to make it appear close so that consumer interest would be maintained throughout the election season, but anyone with a basic knowledge of electoral demographics and a calculator knew the odds the President was facing were long.
The National Guard Airmen for Truth cast a pall over the summer campaigning, with their non-stop hammering of President Bush over his alleged failure to show up for his flight training while serving in the Alabama Air Guard during the Vietnam War. These old charges, which were never specifically proven, were nonetheless damaging to the President's poll numbers among southern white conservative voters just at a time in the race when he was closing in on Senator Kerry. Even the presumptive Democratic Nominee denounced the ads as abominable and disavowed any part in their conception.
What was most distressing for Republicans campaigning for George W. Bush was that the President wasn't fighting back. He refused to discuss his National Guard service, saying that it was old news and the story had been beaten to death back in the Texas gubernatorial campaign. Knowing full well that the story came from his old political guru Karl Rove, who was now working for Cheney and Gingrich, the President consistently took the high road when almost begged by reporters to offer up a red meat rebuttal. "You fellas are tryin' to get me into a shoutin' match over the airwaves, and I've already told ya I'm not gonna do it," was all President Bush would say.
The Republican Convention, held at New York City's Madison Square Garden from August 30th through September 2nd, provided George W. Bush's campaign with some much needed love and a nice bump in the polls, but the euphoria was fleeting. The President's keynote address was a soaring, lyrical oration, something not normally associated with the verbally-challenged President. In it, George W. Bush pleaded with world leaders to join him in ending world hunger by 2020. He talked specifically about malaria and AIDS in Africa, and pledged to dedicate his remaining years to eradicating both of these scourges. He spoke eloquently of the plight of the Palestinian people, the need for a Palestinian state, and an end to violence on both sides. He spoke for almost fifteen minutes about world peace, and how all of the previous subjects were interconnected to the cause of peace. While this beautifully written and superbly delivered speech would have warmed the hearts of the coldest of progressives, and, in fact, was extremely well received in the international press, it was totally devoid of the red meat designed to send delegates and campaigners on to battle the enemy in the fall. There were no shots taken at either opponent; no criticisms of their platforms; and no parrying of criticisms of the President's programs. George W. Bush had taken the highest of high roads, leaving many party regulars scratching their heads and wishing for Karl Rove's sudden change of heart.
Watching his friend on television from his house in Connecticut, Mo Levison knew what was happening. He was convinced that George W. Bush cared more about what he was going to do with the rest of his life than about four more years of being the President.
As children growing up in the United States, most of us were conditioned that there was almost no greater aspiration in life than to be the President of the United States. I say almost, because these days, children may think it better to become the next Kobe Bryant, the next American Idol, or even the next Donald Trump. Certainly being the oldest son of a politician striving towards the ultimate brass ring, George W. Bush would have had to have considered being President the definitive achievement. The idea of walking away from this highest of power positions when there is the very real possibility of four more years is just not something we ladder climbing, accomplishment-oriented Americans can easily grasp. "What an extraordinary thing!" marveled Mo Levison. He understood that what had transformed the President was not something easily explained to...anybody.
The wildest rumors of what had ailed the President between the fall of 2002 and spring of 2003–rumors that had been dismissed by all but the tabloids–were actually closer to the truth than anyone realized. Those of us in the media, so programmed to search for facts deduced logically and supported by one's own experience, quickly discounted any ideas that George W. Bush had had visions, or seen something supernatural, or was influenced by dreams or prophecy, as so much religious or New Age poppycock. This writer, in fact, heard these rumors and the reaction was collegial cynical snickering. It was almost unanimously agreed that this President, of all people, was not the sort of guy to be prone to mystical experiences. Even his born-again Christianity was pretty straightforward stuff.
But viewed through another lens, what else could account for the complete transfiguration of a man who hated change, who seemed so set in his ways, who rarely if ever changed his mind, who seemed viscerally incapable of admitting a mistake, and who suffered from no personal doubt whatsoever? How does a man change a lifetime of behavioral patterns in less than five months, and do it while under the pressure of being the President of the United States? Anyone who covered this President for any length of time would tell you that it was highly, highly improbable.
Even now–now that George W. Bush has taken the risk to divulge his secret to a skeptical world–there will be many scoffers who will go out of their way to find more concrete answers to something quite mystical.
Reading back over my notes as I transcribed the President's dreams–and this was almost three years after they occurred–I was struck again by the incredible precision, the attention to detail, the sheer volume of remembrance, and, most of all, the inescapable conclusion that George W. Bush woke up on one morning knowing things he didn't know when he went to bed the night before. To paraphrase Donald Rumsfeld, how do we know what he didn't know?
To take but one example: The President had never, to anyone's knowledge, uttered the words "Sunni" and "Shia" together in a sentence before the meeting in his office with his aides following his first dream. There is a well-documented record of a meeting in the Oval Office between the President and two Iraqi exiles that took place in the early fall of 2002 in which George W. Bush had no idea of the difference between Sunnis and Shias. The day after his first dream, he was peppering his aides and Cabinet Secretaries with questions about the two Islamic sects, completely out of character with his normal behavior.
A second example: unless George W. Bush has been secretly hiding a love of history from everyone in his life, it also is well documented by other biographers that he a) doesn't read much for pleasure, and b) when he does, it is not American history. The President was only vaguely aware of the name "George McClellan" before his first dream, and yet his description of him, from how he looked, to the way he talked, and particularly his relationship with Abraham Lincoln, was spot on. His description of Lincoln, for that matter, was uncanny, as were the details of General George Custer's exploits.
In George W. Bush's second dream–forget the larger issues–there is one small detail that I found almost eerie in its prescience. The President notes, almost off-handedly, that Al Gore writes the words 'Inconvenient Truth' on a notepad after hearing Martin Luther King utter the phrase. There was no way that the President knew, at that time, that the former Vice President was even thinking about making a movie let alone what he was going to call it.
Stepping out of my role as a passive chronicler, I must say, to borrow a phrase from the former President himself, that I have no personal doubt whatsoever that, at the very least, George W. Bush was deeply affected by the dreams that he had between the fall of 2002, and the beginning of 2003, to the extent that it was these three dreams that were the main catalyst for his decision to stop the war with Iraq on the eve of deployment. This view will be controversial, as I know the description of these dreams will strike some as delusional fantasy. Having spent a considerable amount of time with the man, it was his very lack of philosophy, or curiosity, or creativity, or interest in anything esoteric that makes the sudden and vivid appearance of these dreams track with such veracity.
George W. Bush was visited on three separate occasions in the middle of the night by a force that he instinctively knew that he must struggle to make sense of. His religious conviction was the perfect frame to surround these dreams. That it seems beyond his limited ability to comprehend is all the more reason why we should believe him. In the end, I must conclude, that he couldn't have made it up.
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